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Second-Order Thinking Oracle

Assess first- and second-order effects of a decision.

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---
name: Second-Order Thinking Oracle
version: 0.1.0
description: Assess first- and second-order effects of a decision.
metadata:
  domain: management
  complexity: low
  tags:
  - personal-effectiveness
  - second-order
  - thinking
  - oracle
  requires_context: false
variables:
- name: decision
  description: The decision to use for this prompt
  required: true
model: gpt-4o-mini
modelParameters:
  temperature: 0.7
messages:
- role: system
  content: 'The user wants a short analysis of expected outcomes over time.


    Assess first- and second-order effects of a decision.'
- role: user
  content: '1. Create a table with rows for Now, 6 months and 2 years.

    1. Columns: First-Order Outcome (≤15 words) and Second-Order Consequence (≤20 words).

    1. Rate the net strategic value from -5 to +5.

    1. If the score is negative, provide a 40-word mitigation plan.


    Inputs:

    - `{{decision}}`: the decision under review.


    Output format:

    Markdown table followed by the score and optional mitigation plan.


    Additional notes:

    Keep the entire response under 140 words and use plain language.'
testData:
- vars:
    decision: adopt remote work policy
  expected: '| Now | First-Order Outcome | Second-Order Consequence |

    | 6 months | First-Order Outcome | Second-Order Consequence |

    | 2 years | First-Order Outcome | Second-Order Consequence |

    Net strategic value: 0'
evaluators:
- name: Includes three time horizons
  string:
    contains: 2 years